Diminishing prospects for a third Rajapakse term

By Harim Peiris

(Published in the Island of 6^th Jan 2015)

President Mahinda Rajapakse has in the past been a master of the Machiavellian political art of divide and rule. There was not a political party represented in Parliament, which he was either unable to woo over to his side or breakaway at least one member. Even the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) members was not immune to Rajapakse charms or lures, its only Sinhala MP, Piyasena from the Ampara District crossing over to support the President in his own reverse Magna Carta, of the 18^th Amendment, which consolidated all state power in the Presidency, removed independent governance institutions and eliminated term limits on the presidency. For such a political leader it is quite a unique feature that he has succeeded in once again almost uniting every other political force in the country except this time, they are all against him, led by his own general secretary and a significant swath from his own party, including his predecessor as president. From the main opposition UNP to the JVP, from the JHU to the SLMC and the TNA, from the Democratic Party of General Fonseka to the tiny Liberal Party of Professor Rajiva Wijesinghe, from professional groups and civil society including artistes (who get assaulted by goons), lawyers and university academics are all united against a Rajapakse third term.  The common message of a united opposition, which is fielding a common candidate, is that enough is enough. Two terms is enough. Even Mahinda has no real rationale for explaining either the early election or the unprecedented attempt at a third term, except that he feels it is his duty. Taking this claim with a more than a pinch of salt, challenger Maithripala Sirisena and the united opposition has clearly stated that Rajapakse Administration mostly benefits the Rajapakse family and an attendant coterie and not really the country.

A Sinhala only game plan

A close analysis of both the 2005 and 2010 presidential election demonstrates that Mahinda Rajapakse was elected on a preponderance of the Sinhala vote. The razor thin 2005 victory grew by leaps and bounds following the war victory over the LTTE in 2009. However, as any marketing specialist would say, it is impossible to defend a monopoly in a competitive environment. Accordingly Mahinda Rajapakse was always going to be vulnerable in a challenge to his Sinhala base. That challenge has come and come with a vengeance. It was not really possible in 2009 right after the end of the war. But in 2015, five years down the road, the primary issues are not security but non corrupt governance and economic well being. On these counts, the Rajapakse Administration was vulnerable and demonstrated its vulnerability in the Uva provincial polls and it has been downhill from there. The opposition united, his party split, the allegations against the president and his family are made openly and his campaign is reduced to a state machinery run façade with diminishing public support.  The latest to break away from the Rajapakse’s is the young deputy minister for investment promotion, lawyer Faizer Mustapha, who pledged his support to the common opposition challenger Maithripala Sirisena.

Rajapakse Governance benefiting the Rajapakse’s’

The presidential election campaign has created the political space for unprecedented attacks and assaults on President Rajapakse and his governance. Now this would be normal in a democracy, but Sri Lanka has been one of the most dangerous places on earth for journalists and free speech during the Rajapakse years, from the murder of Sunday Leader Editor Lasantha Wickramatunga to the disappearance of Prageeth Ekneligoda, leading to strict self censorship, especially on criticism of the Rajapakse’s in the Sinhala media. The lid though is partially off, given a presidential election and the basic allegation against President Rajapakse is that he has done a de facto transformation of a multi party democracy into a near absolute monarchy complete with a ruling family, a dynastic project and a designated natural heir apparent. This is being challenged within the Sinhala constituency and Mahinda Rajapakse needs to only lose some support among the Sinhala electorate to be vulnerable to an electoral loss in a straight forward two person contest and Sinhala support seems to slipping away sufficiently to indicate that Mahinda verses the rest may be a losing proposition for the incumbent.

A Chinese conspiracy verses a Western conspiracy

The Rajapakse camp likes to allege a western conspiracy in the opposition campaign. However, as the old English saying goes, those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. The Rajapakse’s western conspiracy theory has no evidence and has hence not had traction with the public. On the contrary the Rajapakse Administration can be faulted for turning Sri Lanka into a Chinese dependency by mortgaging our futures and national assets at loan shark interest rates in opaque mega deals to the Chinese, dispensing with all tender procedures, resulting in the most expensive high ways in the world.  Clearly the Rajapakse campaign does not seem short of money. Leaving aside the abuse of state resources, the “Nil Balakaya” besides alleged goon squads, seems to have endless supply of money. The voters will give their verdict on January 8^th, where the real conspiracies seemly exist.

The SLMC and TNA also support Maithripala Sirisena for President

By Harim Peiris

(published in The Island of 31^st December 2014)

Tissa Attanayake leads an inconsequential group of political light weights, who post the Uva PC polls have crossed over from the opposition to the government, rumored to be for considerable sums of money. The real substantive political consolidation and coalescing of support has been in the opposition camp where common candidate Maithripala Sirisena has been making friends and influencing people at an astonishing pace. In contrast Mahinda Rajapakse finds himself without many of the people who stood by his side in the 2010 campaign; they are on his opponent’s political platform, explaining to Rajapakse’s constituency, why seven more years of Rajapakse rule would be disastrous for the country.

It is corruption verses development

The Mahinda Rajapakse camp seems short of ideas and stuck back in 2010 as far as their political message goes. Recognizing that economics or bread and butter issues as they are often called, matter to people, the government has been focusing on its infrastructure development plans. The counter to this, of course has been that the development has been with such significant corruption that we for instance have the world’s most expensive high ways. The Rajapakse Administration does not help their cause by violating every government tender procedure in the implementation of the mega projects.

Maithripala Sirisena is campaigning on constitutional reform, an end to corruption and good governance. The Mahinda Rajapakse Administration is campaigning and indeed governed as if none of these issues mattered to the Sinhala constituency as much as security and development. During the war, yes for the sake of security, a national consensus did exist to limit certain freedoms. But even at the height of the war, judicial independence and democratic norms were generally followed. It is really post the end of the war and after re election in 2010 that the Rajapakse Administration really lost their way, jailing the opposition presidential candidate, impeaching the chief justice, repealing the 17^th amendment and centralizing all powers in the presidency, abolishing term limits, getting nearly 60% of the national budget directly under the control of Rajapakse family members, compromising our foreign relations with nations which had  supported our war effort and providing an enabling environment for communal violence against religious minorities to flourish. It is no surprise that the Muslim parties have now deserted him.

Maithripala Sirisena himself, personally as a seasoned politician, firmly believes in his own message. That the Sinhala electorate, though security conscious and wanting development is also extraordinarily proud of the Sri Lankan state and believe that it belongs to them. High literacy rates means that Sri Lanka has a fairly sophisticated electorate and a highly politicized society. Accordingly in such a context, the alleged abuse of state power by the Rajapakse’s (apparent in even the increasingly violent election campaign) which they believe does not matter to the Sinhala electorate, may actually prove to be their undoing. Abusing the Sri Lankan State, is unpopular among the Sinhalese. On January 9^th, we will know.

The SLMC quits the Government

After weeks of consultations with their constituencies, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) of former Justice Minister Rauff Hakeem, resigned all their posts in the Rajapakse led UPFA and pledged their support for the common opposition candidate. This follows the previous defection to the opposition of the ACMC of Rishard Bathuideen. The SLMC decision to quit the government seems popular with their rank and file all of whom have little sympathy for the Rajapakse regime. The SLMC did not make a major justification for their decision, their principal rationale was that in a process of consultation with the community, this decision was the message they received. Given that it is indeed so, this was the easiest argument to make.

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) bets on a  future with a Maithri Palanya

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the third largest party in Parliament, with thirteen members, followed the SLMC on Tuesday 30^th by formally announcing that it was requesting their supporters to support the candidacy of Maithripala Sirisena for president. The rationale they provided was along the lines of the SLMC but more articulate and forthright than the SLMC. Listing a litany of the governance issues including devaluing the judiciary, the TNA has essentially claimed that strengthening democracy was a priority and in the interest of all Sri Lankans including the Tamil people.

Now the Rajapakse campaign will use the TNA support and active participation in the opposition campaign in the North to allege an LTTE resurrection or a Tamil Diaspora plot. Clearly the Rajapakse Administration having fought the war claiming that it was only against the LTTE and not against the Tamil people and indeed claiming that the war was a humanitarian operation to liberate the Tamils from the clutches of the LTTE, have once the LTTE are defeated, now treating all the Tamil people not as a liberated people but as enemies of the Sri Lankan State. To the extent that ethnic minorities in Sri Lanka are alienated from the State, there is a political problem or challenge to be overcome through dialogue, rather than a politically opportunistic exercise to persist with ethnic polarization and social divisiveness. The Rajapakse regime’s own pre war Tissa Vitharana report or the post war LLRC reports on reconciliation gather dust as nonexistent processes.

The TNA follows JVP strategy

By Harim Peiris   (Published in Groundviews)

 No less a person than the JHU’s General Secretary, Patali Champika Ranawaka, went on record over the past weekend, stating that every attempt at campaigning by the joint opposition is being violently and illegally suppressed by the Rajapakse regime. He stated that if democratic dissent and a genuine electoral process did not occur, the country would slip back to the era of extra parliamentary and violent opposition to the regime. A free and fair election, at least by Sri Lanka’s own flawed standards is a must for us to continue our claims to be a democracy. That claim is being negated by the unprecedented abuses of the entire election process by the Rajapakse campaign. Notwithstanding the same, the joint opposition campaign is graining traction, politically because the SLFP is not really running too hard on behalf of Rajapakse’s and administratively because officials and police are no longer certain that come January 9^th that the Rajapakse regime will remain and accordingly are loath to accept illegal commands. The IGP standing up to the Law and Order Ministry on the illegal transfer of police officers is a good example.

It is in this context, that the Roman Catholic Bishop of Anuradhapura, His Grace Norbert Andradi, was quoted in the press earlier in the week as stating that this was not an opportune time for the Pope to visit Sri Lanka and claimed that several other Bishops too shared this view and also expressed concern about the misuse of the Papal visit for political advantage at the election. However, this caution about the visit, has been pulled back through a pastoral letter by the Catholic Bishops Conference welcoming and anticipating the visit. Now the Vatican foreign ministry and security desired to access the post election climate prior to making a final decision on the visit. However, the pre election environment has been so badly tarnished that for the Pope to visit Sri Lanka in the immediate aftermath of a disputed, flawed and violent election, might be just unsuitable for the Holy Father. However, many observers believe that the visit of the Pope will act as a damper to any thoughts of post election violence.

The TNA and the JVP  

Two important political parties, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) arguably the third and fourth political forces in the country, have both adopted a similar strategy, which is actually working well for the joint opposition’s National Democratic Front (NDF) of Maithripala Sirisena. The NDF holds out the promise of a National Government of both the UNP and the SLFP, under a “Maithri palanaye” in a post Rajapakse political environment. The general expectation is that with a Rajapakse defeat the SLFP will revert back to a Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Maithripala Sirisena leadership, especially when it holds the promise of continued partnership in government, as opposed to languishing in opposition.

Not directly joining in this process, is both the JVP and the TNA for slightly different but also similar reasons. The JVP would be well placed to be the small but main opposition to a UNP- SLFP combine, while the TNA or its predecessor the TULF / Federal Party, which historically does not hold executive office in government, except for its one experiment under Dudley Senanayake, can continue to represent the interest of its constituency from outside the executive.

However both the TNA and the JVP will play a crucial role in the presidential election, because this early presidential election, wanted by no one expect President Rajapakse, is in fact, a request from Mahinda Rajapakse to continue to rule this country for seven more years ( six year term plus one from the current term) or until 2022 as opposed to retiring in 2016. The JVP is already busy telling their supporters countrywide that a further term for Mahinda Rajapakse is not in the interest of all Sri Lankans. Essentially the TNA is most likely to be telling its constituency the exact same thing. After all Sinhalese and Tamils have many if not more shared common interests, than just only competing ones. Listen carefully to ITAK spokesman, Human Rights lawyer MA Sumanthiran and several things become clear.

Firstly the ITAK / TNA believes that a democratic and law abiding Sri Lanka is beneficial to everyone including the Tamil people. After all minority rights cannot exist in an environment where all rights are at stake. Incidentally, MP Sumanthiran was a leading part of Chief Justice Bandaranaike’s impeachment defense team and put up a valiant fight to prevent the usurpation of judicial power by the Rajapakse presidency. Moreover, the Tamil people like to exercise their franchise, something which some misguided sections of the Tamil Diaspora should bear in mind as it supports the Rajapakse campaign’s dream of a Tamil vote boycott. It was such a Tamil boycott in the close 2005 election which saw Mahinda Rajapakse elected. On that occasion with allegations of having paid the LTTE money, via an alleged Tiran Alles deal to boycott the vote. History must not repeat itself. However, the real lesson of the 2005 election was this, in the Batticalo District, where the LTTE was weakened post the Karuna defection, the Tamil people disregarded the LTTE boycott call and voted in droves for the UNP. If the LTTE could not stop the Batticalo voter in 2005, one pities some Diaspora busybodies, playing to the Rajapakse campaign’s dreams of seeing a Tamil vote boycott in 2015.

Maithri articulates a national government

By Harim Peiris

(Published in the Sunday Leader of 14^th December 2014)

The surprising launch of the common opposition presidential campaign of Maithripala Sirisena, is fast evolving into a movement that has the air and excitement of something fresh and new being birthed. Maithri is a man with a message and that message is not only resonating with voters, but also creating a hope and expectancy that beyond the inevitable changes of a potential new administration, that “Maithri palanaye” would not only be new but different, vastly different from the present order.

The resonance of the message is being amplified by the wide rainbow coalition that is coalescing around Maithri, ranging from a sizable faction of the SLFP to the JHU, besides all the opposition parties from the UNP to the Democratic Party. Even the parties not formally in his coalition, such as the JVP are doing his campaign an enormous amount of good and providing invaluable support by stinging criticism of the incumbent Administration and calling upon their supporters to vote against a third term for President Rajapakse. Even the TNA, representing the Tamil community is probably doing a very wise thing, staying off Maithri’s stage and not providing the UPFA with an easy basis to scare monger about minorities. With the UPFA polling just 18% in the North, at the last provincial council election, there is little doubt which way minorities will vote, if their leaders ask them to. The Rajapakse’s may well be ruing the emasculation of the Northern Provincial Council through the Governor’s powers. A strong minority turnout and vote in the North and East would in fact be the ultimate protest vote against Rajapakse rule.

Meanwhile the headcount of breakaways from the Rajapakse led UPFA continues to mount as deputy ministers, P Digambaram and V. S. Radhakrishnan of the CWC resigned from the government and pledged their support to Maithripala Sirisena. In response, the Rajapakse camp has only been able to get two MP’s the UNP’s Tissa Attanayake and the DNA’s Jayantha Ketegoda. Also following Digambaram was three provincial councilors and over a dozen Pradeshiya Sabah members  of his National Workers Union (NWU).  With the departure of Radhakrishnan, the CWC of Thondaman, finds itself isolated in its lackadaisical support for the Rajapakse campaign would be even more hamstrung in the presidential contest than it was even in Uva, where it fared badly.

A Vision for a National Government

Maithripala Sirisena has outlined a bold vision for a national government. A common sense, dialogue driven, consensus seeking form of government, to re establish national institutions and an executive answerable to parliament. This is quite in contrast to the message of the incumbent, which is basically to trust him personally and the benevolence of his rule. Maithri puts forward a much more tried and tested thesis, one much more dependent on a collective rather than on an individual, of a society governed by institutions under the rule of law. This would flow from a general election which must of necessity follow the presidential elections and would see a parliament quite different from the current. But by seeking a Grand National government, Maithri holds out the possibility of including his native Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in his government and his own track record as General Secretary, together with former President Kumaratunga, makes the specter of a national government, a reality. In the event of a defeat of President Rajapakse, his ability to hold on to the SLFP leadership is in considerable doubt. SLFPers would face the rather simple choice of being in opposition with a defeated Rajapakse or being in Government with an elected Maithripala, endorsed by former party leader, President Kumaratunga. Given the sentiments in the SLFP, political loyalty to Mahinda Rajapakse, out of power is likely to be very weak.

Does Corruption, Nepotism and Good Governance matter to the rural voter?

The Rajapakse led UPFA believes and argues, that issues of corruption, nepotism and good governance which Maithri is articulating does not matter to voters, especially the rural Sinhala voter who still makes up the bulk of the Sri Lankan electorate. The Rajapakse Administration believes instead that it is economic wellbeing and large doses of ethno Sinhala nationalism, which is the winning formula with the rural Sinhala base. That ethnic Sinhala nationalism is potent is a rather obvious, but the context matters and paradoxically the end of the war and the defeat of the Tigers, makes Sinhala nationalism less potent. Ethnic nationalism thrives on an external adversary and threat. The Administration’s attempts to scare monger about Muslim Jihadist and Diaspora led LTTE resurgence has few takers even in the Sinhala community. Even the JHU, which can scarcely be seen as pro Tiger, would argue that the Rajapakse Administration’s alleged  corruption, weakening of judicial independence and a casino led development strategy is a far more real and present national danger.

The Sri Lankan electorate is a sophisticated one. With a high literacy rate, a long history of universal adult franchise and a politicized society, our people are well versed in the political issues of the day. Yes, governance issues matter and corruption matters even more than governance. The real problem for the Rajapakse Administration is that its core constituency of the rural Sinhala voter does not feel economic well being. Despite the rosy picture painted by our Central Bank, consumer surveys demonstrate a lack of confidence in the economy and hence blame the Rajapakse governance for the same. The large scale Chinese loan funded infrastructure projects have not generated local jobs, boosted rural incomes or resulted in an increasing middle class. The rich have got very much richer, income inequality has increased and the middle class, lower middles class, the working class both urban and rural are suffering decline in real incomes and with it hope for a better economic future. The apparent wealth around them only fuels resentment and the Rajapakse led UPFA, paid the price in Uva with a massive drop in support and is seeing its support slip further away as the campaign unfolds.

The Rainbow Coalition of Fundamental Change

By Harim Peiris

(Published in the Sunday Leader of 7^th Dec 2014)

The contours of a political vision is being clearly articulated when one examines the message of common presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena, a rare breed of a gentleman politician, a farmer’s son from rural Rajarata, who rose to the second most senior position of the ruling SLFP, as its longest serving General Secretary.

Firstly, the campaign is about the need for change. Change from the corruption and poor governance especially of the Rajapakse second term. To the obvious question as to why now and not earlier, the simple answer is that in Sri Lanka’s system, the time to challenge a government is at a democratic election. An earlier challenge will just get you sacked, just ask Mangala Samaraweera.  Until then you work within the system, engage the powers that be and try and bring change from the inside. This is clearly what the UPFA dissidents did during the Rajapakse second term. It was to no avail and they have made their break with the past.

The core issue of the campaign is good governance and an end to corruption. The common opposition campaign is focused on government corruption as the root cause for the economic pain felt by many sections of society, many of them still publicly protesting even as the election campaign unfolds, from farmers, to fishermen, from post war minority communities, to university students and academics.

Abolition of the Executive Presidency  

There is a pledge of constitutional reform, of abolition of the executive presidency, made by the challenger. The rationale being, that as political philosophers have noted through the ages, concentrated and unchecked political power breeds abuses. As our most recent national experience has demonstrated only too clearly. The question then is then who governs, if the president does not solely do so? The answer is an executive which is drawn from and answerable to Parliament, in which rather obviously a future President Maithripala will play a leading role, as head of state, though not as an elected dictator. There will be a national government of a rainbow coalition, an attractive proposition.

The other real answer is that Sri Lanka must be a mature democracy that is administered by strong institutions, under the rule of law. Today, every institution in the country, from the police, to the judiciary, to the telephone companies are abused by the executive presidency. Police officers are transferred on the eve of the presidential election, a Chief Justice is impeached, ex parte in the dead of night, the TV transmission of the opposition press conference is blocked out and we still question why this executive presidency should not be drastically reformed.

Further the Rajapakse executive presidency is like no other, accounting for over half the national budget, bringing crucial institutions like the Attorney General’s Department and the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission under itself. A drastic re democratization of Sri Lanka is required.

A directionless Rajapakse campaign lacking any vision

The Mahinda Rajapakse re-election campaign is floundering from its start, paradoxically very inauspiciously for a campaign widely believed to have been held two years ahead of schedule based on astrological recommendations. If Sri Lanka actually had a more vibrant democracy that held its leaders accountable to the public, the Rajapakse Administration’s faux pas would have been fatal.

The Rajapakse campaign began with a thinly veiled public blackmail attempt of the dissident ministers, including the common opposition candidate, claiming the existence of “files” on the dissidents. Such a claim obviously begs the question, why now? And also if prima farci case exists, there can be no cover up, the facts must be made public. Clearly a rather empty claim has to be the logical conclusion.

Secondly we have the absolutely outrageous contention of a government minister on behalf of the campaign stating that because they had already robbed so much and could not possibly rob much more, they should be reelected, rather than a fresh set of people, who may start robbing afresh. Such theatre that passes off for as a rationale for reelecting the Rajapakse’s for a third term is more farce than comedy.

The Rajapakse campaign has also been busy trying to both engineer some crossovers from the opposition to the government and also to prevent further crossovers from government to the opposition. Though the process is ongoing and with fabulous amounts of money on offer, as none other than former Minister Navin Dissanayake claimed, on both counts the Rajapakse Administration has to date failed as Minister Navin Dissanayake, MP Hunais Farook and several UPFA provincial councilors crossed over from the government to the opposition.

More importantly though, the Rajapakse third term lacks both a vision and a message. There is no rhyme, reason or rationale given for seeking a third term and early one at that. There is no message coming out of a shell shocked campaign. A set of infrastructure development plans drawn up at the Finance Ministry, does not constitute a political vision. The Rajapakse Administration was so sure that it’s opponent would be Ranil Wickramasinghe, that posters printed in India, slamming Ranil was shipped and secured at the Sri Lanka Ports Authority security yard, when the UNP MP’s when to inspect it and of course in our land like no other, it was the MP’s who were charged with criminal trespass.

Losing the majority in three provincial councils  

The Rajapakse Administration has effectively lost its majority in three provincial councils, namely the Uva, Eastern and North Central Provincial Councils. The Rajapakse Administration facing defeat in the Councils has adjourned all three councils till after the presidential election, In Uva on the farcical basis that it is too cold for members to attend sitting.  There the UNP’s Harin Fernando is busy collecting affidavits to prove he has the support of a majority of the Council to force the Government to bow to the wishes of the majority. In the East, the Government did not bother with even a farcical explanation for the sudden adjournment, when its budget was about to be defeated. In the North Central Province with both Maithri and Duminda Dissanayake’s supporters having switched support, the Government whose Chairman nominee anyway earlier lost to the late Bertie Premlal’s nominee, it is clearly in a minority.

The Rajapakse Administration’s only message is to try and make this election about Rajapakse verses the West, but in reality it has become, Rajapakse verses the rest. President Rajapakse allies have now joined or become his opponents. From his General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena to his Reconciliation Advisor Rajiva Wijesinghe, from his young bucks Wasantha Senanayake and Duminda Dissanayake to his seasoned hands Rajitha Senanayake, from the urban Arjuna Ranatunga to the rural MKDS Goonewardena, Mahinda Rajapakse’s political friends and allies are deserting him. A truly rainbow coalition is backing the common presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena to bring about the “Maithri palanaye” and a fundamental change.